Statistics Canada predicts Canada’s poverty rate in 2023 will be 10.2%. This is a 13.3% increase in 2023 and follows a 21.8% increase in 2022. The poverty rate has returned to pre-pandemic levels.
“The Poverty Reduction Act (2019) established an Official Poverty Line for Canada based on the Market Basket Measure (MBM). According to the MBM, poverty thresholds are based on the cost of a basket of food, clothing, shelter, transportation and other items representing a modest, basic standard of living. The current MBM establishes thresholds for 53 different geographic regions in the provinces, which can be adjusted to families of different sizes. When a person’s or family’s disposable income is below the threshold for the size of their family in a particular region, they are considered to be living in poverty.” (Blueprint)
In 2015 (the last year the Conservative Party of Canada was in power) the poverty rate was estimated to be 14.5%. By 2019 the rate had decreased to 10.3% an absolute decrease of 1,251,000 persons.
| Year | Number in poverty | % in poverty |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 5,044,000 | 14.50% |
| 2016 | 4,552,000 | 12.90% |
| 2017 | 4,260,000 | 11.90% |
| 2018 | 4,065,000 | 11.20% |
| 2019 | 3,793,000 | 10.30% |
| 2020 | 2,357,000 | 6.40% |
| 2021 | 2,762,000 | 7.40% |
| 2022* | 3,794,000 (Estimated) | 9.8% (Provisional) |
Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Income Survey, Table 11-10-0135-01 Low income statistics by age, sex and economic family type. Note: * The provisional poverty rate shown for 2022 is an estimate based on modeling (Heisz & Gustajtis, 2023). We estimated the number of persons living in poverty in 2022 using the 2022 provisional poverty rate and the average of the 2022 quarterly population estimates for Canada's provinces (author's calculation). Official poverty rate estimates for 2022 will be available with the release of the 2022 CIS in 2024.
The dramatic drop in 2020 was caused by the temporary increase in government transfers due to COVID restrictions. The median transfers received by families and individuals increased from $8,500 to $17,000 and more than offset the income losses due to emergency closures. In 2021 the median transfer decreased to $13,300 and still had some impact on poverty rates.
In 2021 the highest rate of poverty was 28.8% found in single females under 65. In second place were single males under 65 with a rate of 24.2%. While still shockingly high those rates represent a decrease in poverty rates of 31.3% and 33.7% respectively. Poverty rates for single parent families were 17.2% for those led by a female and 11.6% for those led by a male.
People earning minimum wage and working full time (i.e. 35 hours a week) do not earn enough money to avoid poverty. For example earnings after CPP, EI and income tax deductions were:
| Region | 2021 Poverty Level | Minimum wage* | Earnings | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa-Gatineau | $25,178 | $15.00 | $22,765 | ($2,413) |
| Regina, Sask. | $23,741 | $11.81 | $18,803 | ($4,938) |
| Vancouver, BC | $25,942 | $15.20 | $23,344 | ($2,598) |
Social assistance (“welfare”) is the last resort for some. In 2021 even the highest of those rates did not meet the poverty line. In the following chart total income refers to income from all government transfers, including basic provincial and territorial social assistance, refundable tax credits, child benefits, and any other specific social assistance benefits.
| Household type* | Jurisdiction | Poverty Line** | Total income | Poverty Line % | Shortfall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single person (lowest) | Moncton, NB | $22,404 | $7,499 | 33% | ($14,905) |
| Single person (highest) | Montreal, QC | $21,529 | $12,968 | 60% | ($8,561) |
| Single person with a disability (lowest) | Calgary, AB (BFE)ᶧᶧ | $25,910 | $11,195 | 43% | ($14,715) |
| Single person with a disability (highest) | Calgary, AB (AISH)ᶧᶧ | $25,910 | $21,164 | 82% | ($4,746) |
| Single parent, 1 child (lowest) | Halifax, NS | $34,175 | $21,134 | 62% | ($13,041) |
| Single parent, 1 child (highest)ᶧ | Montreal, QC | $30,447 | $24,532 | 81% | ($5,915) |
| Single parent, 1 child (highest)ᶧ | Charlottetown, PEI | $33,050 | $26,639 | 81% | ($6,411) |
| Couple, 2 children (lowest) | Moncton, NB | $44,808 | $27,177 | 61% | ($17,631) |
| Couple, 2 children (highest) | Montreal, QC | $43,058 | $39,659 | 92% | ($3,399) |
- Source: 2021 Welfare in Canada, Maytree Foundation. - Notes: - *For the analysis, the head of all households were assumed to be fully "employable," except for the single person with a disability (as reflected in program eligibility definitions). It was also assumed that the households had no earnings, so they were eligible to receive the maximum rate of social assistance. - **Poverty thresholds for 2021 were estimated by increasing 2020 thresholds in line with the CPI for each applicable city. Thus, MBM poverty thresholds may not reflect 2021 official thresholds. - ᶧSingle parent, 1-child households in Montreal and Charlottetown were both designated as the highest welfare incomes. Each was 81% of their corresponding MBM threshold. - ᶧᶧAISH refers to Alberta's Assured Income for the Severely Handicapped program. BFE refers to Alberta's Barriers to Full Employment program.
References
Blueprint for Transformation: the 2023 Report of the National Advisory Council on Poverty
Modelled Market Basket Measure poverty rates for 2022 and 2023
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